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8 Billion Listeners?

Pardon me while I nerd out for a minute. Official estimates put the world population at roughly 8 billion this past December, and I couldn’t help but have a brain tangent about what a growing population meant for the music business. Bear with me— I do have a point, but there are several factors that I need to suss out along the way… We musicians are aware that the population has been growing, and in theory this should scale up listenership in the age of streaming, but things don’t appear to be scaling quite so quickly and we are far from duplicating the financial success of the 90’s where distribution was dominated by over-margined cds. I believe the streaming + physical mix is here to stay. Physical being more for the collectors, next level fans, and audiophiles. Streaming will take care of the majority though, with downloads useful only for out of network use… 

I’m going to make an assumption now. 

The assumption is that at certain population milestones, what was once good niche local music can have a sufficient level of fans that will support the livelihood of the artists. I’m going to quantify this– because why not. I’m going to give said artist a median US income of (55k) plus the cost of releasing an album a year–25k,(Indie style release 25k), so 80k. This means each album would need about 20-24 mil streams depending on the outlet mix if income was just from streaming. If someone likes your song, we’ll say they give it at least 50 listens a year, so roughly 480k fans are needed. 50 listens x 3.5 minutes = 2.9 hours of time a year. As of 2022, average time spent listening was 1.66 hours a day. Currently, there are about 4.3 billion mobile internet users, and estimates of paid music streaming subscribers are likely around 650 million worldwide. Safe to say there are enough listeners to support a musician middle class.

Ok, the problem now, if everything else checks out, how do you get the music you make to the algorithmically identifiable potential 480k fans? Is there a mutual benefit to both music manufacturer and music distributor to identify and distribute to potential fans? Are they already doing this to the best of their ability? According to loud & clear of Spotify, they are estimating that at least 50k artists are earning about 1/2 of the 80k I said is needed annually. I have to believe access is being increased with technology, but my experience shows that streaming dj’s (aka playlisters) seem to have the greatest value of suggestion with Apple and Spotify controlling their primary playlists for better or worse. Based on the Spotify data it does appear that there has been both diffusion of monetary flow from the top 50 artists and away from the US to the international music scene, but most musicians still aren’t feeling the cash flow. 

You still listening?

I believe the real opportunity for both distributors and artists lies in the local markets. Hold on – more math… There are roughly 500 metro areas globally with over 1 million people (60 in the US). Last year there were 5.3 trillion streams. That means if things were equally distributed there would be 106 billion streams per these markets; then divided equally amongst artists there would be 5300 artists with 20 million + streams per nearest 1 million person market. At these numbers, there is the potential for over 2 million artists to be earning a “middle class” income of 80k, way more than the  50k artists earning half that per Spotify’s data.  I can’t name one artist that meets this 20 million stream criteria for my market of 1.7 million people, which is just behind Nashville in population nationally. There is the issue of quality production that I often harp on, and I believe to be one of the factors that reduces potential listenership of a song, but that aside, here is an opportunity for venues, artists, and distributors. 

Spotify, Apple are you listening?

For these large markets good local productions should be weaved into the primary playlist. Do not, I repeat do not create a playlist that says, your local music scene, if it is a great rock song, drop it in the main rock playlist only for its local market. I know Spotify and Apple have the data and know how to make this happen. I refuse to believe that there are not some genre options produced locally that would qualify in all of these markets. I’m not saying to get rid of curation, this would just be another form of curation.  This would elevate, and inevitably find some top notch songs that would have never risen to their full potential otherwise. More importantly, this would bolster local scenes and artists’ income as their show value would go up with increased popularity and legitimacy, which simultaneously helps the venues by increasing foot traffic and those things that come with a venue full of fans. Music scenes make music lovers and on a global level I’m sure this would equate to at least a couple percentage points of increased profit for the streaming platforms and much more for the musicians. I also believe that the first platform to do this is going to solidify their position even further.

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We Write Our Own %&*!

We wrote our own chord progressions, our own drum fills, our own bass lines, guitar solos, lyrics and harmonies. We created our own marketing materials, filmed our own videos, booked our own tours, built out tour buses and designed our own album covers. We learned from our mistakes—usually, and picked one another up when we were down, distracted, and disillusioned. We dreamed big— real big—all the time. We were a band. A real band, not a fabricated boy band, I’m talking childhood friends who were given the gift of circumstance to go to school with a future bandmate or work a part-time job with a person they would share a hotel room with on the road. Sometimes, I imagine having a band is what being in a carnival must have felt like around the year 1900. Full of misfit-geniuses that somehow made it all work, truly their own beasts of burden. What some people forget while watching from the crowd is that for the hundreds of semi-pro bands that play small venues and do one week to one month long tours each year, these bands show up on time, start on time, get gas in the tank, feed themselves, and provide some of the best live entertainment this country has to offer. For the dreamers that choose this lifestyle over consistent income, consistent hours, and consistent everything, there is a wealth of knowledge and experience. Some call it being road-wise, I’ll just call it truly living. What is this life if not experience, and for the musicians that gain these experiences that money can’t buy, they are rich. They are in on a secret that can only be learned by those persistent and daring enough to pursue it. Savoring the experience of chilling in a green room your idols sat in, or hearing a crowd in another town sing your lyrics back to you. This is the experience we’re chasing—yeah we all wanted to be stars, and sure you sign a few autographs, but on stage, nailing a musical transition and watching the crowd come alive with your musical family—whew. It’s the performance. I realized that’s why the carnies stayed in the act, and why all live performers will stick it out through thin times. To have the palpable power over a crowd in the stroke of chord or a snare hit is quite a feeling and worth waiting for that next time. Stacked next to the greats, my performance history seems unimpressive, but the memories are gold and the bonds with those guys are timeless. I’m not against the rise of DJ’s and single producer tracks, but I’m always intrigued by the new blood that knows there are still songs that can only be built when we all write our own !%$&.

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Take the Train – Blog #3

I took a mostly empty train to visit family recently and was given some time to reflect on my current musical projects and all the projects I’ve shelfed for now due to lack of time and resources. Initially, I was a touch frustrated with the list of items I haven’t been able to get to. I have a lovely family and day job still, so it is literally impossible to keep every iron hot. I think this feeling is common for a lot of driven musicians, entrepreneurs, and prolific folks like myself. I asked myself the question, “Will I ever get to these items?” Some of these items were partially complete recordings or keeping up a quicker pace with the podcast, not lofty or fringe items.

            Back to the train… happy to be riding in a peaceful car with WIFI and plenty of leg room, I thought,  “this is such a luxury that is completely under-utilized.” I walked up to the dining car, got a breakfast sandwich and a drink with only one other person in line. After the ride, I couldn’t help but imagine that train rides might be the next big travel move in the US. I think folks are a little more ready to sit back and enjoy the journey. More precisely, it isn’t about the amount of time used but how the time is used.  Not only was I comfortable, I had three hours to reflect, work, send emails, walk around. At that moment the journey was my destination and in that mode of reflection, I had some time to reframe my outlook on my musical endeavors.

            I cleared my list down to my two most impactful projects for myself and the public because my mission is to put out good music. One of these projects is not necessarily an SDS project, but it has found me working as an executive producer on an album for a friend (I will spill the beans on this in a few weeks). I have worked in this capacity on several albums, but this album is coming out on a “big” indie-label. I’m learning a lot! Simply, I’m enjoying myself. I also believe in this album and want as many people to hear it as possible, and I’m confident my contributions will help the artist and label team reach that end goal. The second project is the continued support of the August 27th release of Jake Retting’s 2nd single! I love Jake’s music and have seen how his songs touch listeners. Neither of these projects have me behind the guitar or behind the board at this moment, but that’s ok. This is where I’m at in my musical journey and I’ve decided to soak it in, learn, and apply my new knowledge to future projects and my life in general. 

            In case you didn’t pick it up, here is my advice for those musicians out there who have received their checklists. You know, the release checklists, the premier checklists, the promo checklists, your own checklists. I implore you to do two things. First, take some items off the list(s), and make sure you are focused on what makes you authentic and forget the rest for a moment. Second, don’t worry too much; ideas and projects get derailed. I used to get frustrated when bands ended or recordings didn’t happen, but those things have led me here. It might have taken a little bit longer, but I’ve had a great time, and I’ve decided I’m more interested in keeping that going!

-Trav-

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Achieving success in the music business

I think it safe to say, as young musicians, we all had dreams of limo’s, nice hotels, and fancy things, but success along those lines is frankly unlikely and a bit shallow. That being said, I have seen a multitude of success stories in the music business and the point of this blog is to help musicians define success. First, if you’ve had the fortune of performing or having someone perform or play your music for an audience, you’ve had success. The point of any art is to be appreciated and interacted with. Too often in the art industry we skip this basic phenomenon of people encountering our art. I would suggest this facet should always be on top of a musicians thoughts when they are engaging the public. Second, if your musical endeavors pay for themselves, you’ve reached a level of success most people never do and never will. At this point it is probably a little more than a hobby, and I’m guessing you may have some grassroots following. Be thankful, the market is saying they value your contribution and hope you will continue to create. Lastly, your musical endeavors may actually pay your “real” bills. This could mean earning the U.S. median income of 31k or much more. A lot of people in Hampton Roads have accomplished this via gigging with multiple bands and giving lessons. A few have actually done this with their own original music. I applaud both of those two groups! As a musician reflects on the trajectory of their creations, they should know that finishing the song is the first stage of success. I try to define what success means for each project or song I start before beginning. This helps build a good release plan and alleviates a lot of frustration; however, my most important criteria is enjoying what I’m working on. If you’re not having fun, figure out what it is you enjoy and pursue that. That is how you’ll be authentic and ultimately successful in the music business. -Travis-

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My First Blog, I guess.

I played my first show at the Sunset Grill on Virginia Beach Blvd in 1998. It is hard to say how many shows I’ve played since then, but I know I fell in love with the process of creating music very early on. My passion for music left the stage and moved into music production and band management as I grew older and took on more of life’s responsibilities. One thing has been constant though, I have been amazed by numerous musicians in my hometown. I’ve heard great songs that never reached the public outside of a few parties or bar gigs. “Wouldn’t it be nice to help some of these songs reach the light of day or at least their community at large,” I often thought to myself. Times have changed and I’ve seen people start to reinvest in their communities and their local culture, and I feel it is time for my home in the 757 to have a record label all their own. Much like a restaurant that only serves locally grown produce or a local brewer that employs their neighbors and enlist their own recipes, S.D.S. was thought up to showcase the best of 757 music culture and make sure Hampton Roads is known for its music just as much as its seafood. 

Travis Mansell – Founder